Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 9/2007
Monetary Developments & Policy Survey. September 2007
CONTENTS
- I SUMMARY
- Main economic developments in 2007-2009
- Global economy and Estonia's economy
- External and domestic demand
- Inflation
- Labour market
- External balance
- Banking sector
- General government
- Economic policy conclusions
- II GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ECONOMY
- Monetary policy environment
- Inflation
- Growth outlook
- Financial and commodity markets
- IV DEMAND AND SUPPLY
- Domestic demand
- Investment
- Private consumption
- General government
- External demand and domestic supply
- Industry and other fields of activity
- Employment
- External balance
- V INFLATION
- Consumer prices
- Labour costs
- Exchange rate of the Estonian kroon
- VI ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2007-2009
- Summary
- Base forecast scenario
- Economic growth
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Investment
- Labour market
- Wage growth pressures ease slowly
- Tensions will mitigate primarily through unemployment
- External balance
- External debt
- Inflation
- Main goods and services
- Motor fuels and thermal energy
- General government
- Banking sector
- Corporate credit
- Consumer credit
- Housing loans
- Risk scenarios
- Risk scenario 1: A steep decline in the activity of property development
- Risk scenario 2: Rapid wage growth will continue, i.e. nominal convergence will proceed without real convergence
- Risk scenario 3: Borrowing is complicated
- Risk scenario 4: Sectors that benefited a lot from domestic demand readjust themselves to export markets
- Conclusions
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