Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 1/2008

Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 1/2008

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION
I ESTONIAN ECONOMY IN 2007
Monetary policy environment
Money and capital market
External demand
Adjustment of domestic demand
External balance
Inflation
General government
II INFLATION
Consumer prices
External price pressures
Incomes and domestic demand
Food and energy prices
Core inflation and service prices
Real effective exchange rate of the kroon
III ECON0MIC FORECAST FOR 2008-2010
Forecast base scenario
Economic growth
Domestic demand
Private consumption
Investment
Labour market
Wages and labour costs
Employment and unemployment
External balance and external debt
Inflation
Administrative factors
Main goods and services
Motor fuel and energy
General government
Banking sector
Housing credit
Consumer credit
Corporate credit
Overdue loans
Risk scenarios
Risk scenario 1: Correction in domestic demand
Risk scenario 2: Utilisation of export potential with new global growth cycle in 2009
Risk scenario 3: Wage and price spiral

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