Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 2/2009

Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 2/2009

CONTENTS

ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2009-2011
Summary
External environment
Base forecast scenario

Economic growth
Domestic demand
Private consumption
Investment
Stocks
External balance and external debt
Labour market
Employment
Unemployment
Wages and labour costs
Prices
Price expectations
Administrative factors
Food, alcohol and tobacco
Motor fuel
Household energy
Core inflation
General government
General government expenditure
General government revenue
Fiscal balance and debt
Banking sector
Consumer credit
Housing loans
Corporate credit

Risk scenarios

Risk scenario 1: Larger-scale domestic demand corrections
Risk scenario 2: Faster recovery of external demand

 

Box 1. Estonia's potential economic growth and the GDP gap
Box 2. Intra-industry trade in Estonia compared with the main trading partners
Box 3. Asymmetries in price setting of motor fuels

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