Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 1/2010

Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 1/2010

CONTENTS

ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2010-2012
Summary
External environment
Base forecast scenario

Economic activity
Domestic demand
Private consumption
Investment
Stocks
External balance and competitiveness
Labour market
Employment and productivity
Unemployment
Wages and labour costs
Prices
Prices
Administered prices
Food, alcohol and tobacco
Motor fuel
Household energy
Core inflation
General government
General government expenditure
General government income
Fiscal balance and debt
Banking sector
International credit market
Estonian credit market

Alternative forecast scenarios

First alternative scenario: higher inflow of foreign investment
Second alternative scenario: larger contraction in debt burden

 

Box 1. Medium-term outlook and sustainability of fiscal policy in Estonia
Box 2. The adjustment of different-sized companies in expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle

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