12/2005 Rasmus Kattai. EMMA - a quarterly model of the Estonian economy

Working Papers of Eesti Pank. No 12, 2005

This paper describes the first version of Eesti Pank's structural macro-econometric model EMMA. EMMA belongs to the second generation of macro models, with Neo-Classical supply determined long run properties and Keynesian demand driven short run adjustment.
The model has been designed for forecasting as well as for simulation exercises. In order to fulfil both tasks, the emphasis has been put on capturing the main characteristics of the Estonian economy.
The model describes a very small and open economy, in which long run economic growth and inflation are strongly influenced by real and nominal convergence towards EU15 levels.
JEL Code: C5, E12, E17
Key words: Estonia, macro model

*  I would like to thank Aurelijus Dabušinskas, John Lewis, David G. Mayes, Jaanika Meriküll, Martti Randveer, Ele Reiljan, Karsten Staehr and Andres Võrk for their comments and suggestions. The author takes the responsibility for any errors or omissions.

Author's e-mail address: rasmus.kattai [at] epbe.ee

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official views of Eesti Pank.

Contents

1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Set Up of the Macro Model of the Estonian Economy
2.1. Demand Side of the Economy
2.2. Supply Side of the Economy
3. Underlying Assumptions for the Long Run Growth Path
3.1. Income Level Convergence
3.2. Prices and Nominal Convergence
4. Estimating and Setting up the Model
4.1. Data and Estimation Method
4.2. Structure of the Model
4.3. Real Sector
4.4. External Sector
4.5. Prices
4.6. Labour Market
4.7. Government Sector
4.8. Shock Simulations and Properties of the Model
5. Conclusions
References
Appendices
Appendix 1. List of Acronyms
Appendix 2. Equations of the Model
Appendix 3. Estonian Relative Price Level Compared to EU15
Appendix 4. Identities of the Model
Appendix 5. Responses to a Transitory Interest Rate Shock
Appendix 6. Responses to a Foreign Demand Shock
Appendix 7. Responses to an Oil Price Shock

EMMA - a Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy, Working Papers of Eesti Pank No 12, 2005 (PDF*)

* To read PDF file, you need Adobe® Acrobat® Reader™ freeware, it may be downloaded from Adobe homepage.