2/2021 Nicolas Reigl. Expectational Errors and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Europe


Working Papers of Eesti Pank 2/2021

This paper investigates how supply noise and demand noise contribute to business cycle fluctuations in three major European economies. A structural vector autoregressive model is used to identify supply, demand, supply noise and demand shocks. The identification scheme is built on nowcast errors of output growth and the inflation rate that are derived from
the Consensus Economics Survey. The results indicate that positive supply noise and positive demand noise shocks have an expansionary effect on output but their magnitude differs across countries. The two shocks contribute equally to business fluctuations and jointly they account for around one quarter of the total variation in GDP in each of the three countries.

JEL classification: E31, E32, E58

Keywords: Business cycles, noise shocks, SVAR, survey expectations

DOI: 10.23656/25045520/022021/0184

Contact: nicolas.reigl [at] eestipank.ee

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of Eesti Pank or the Eurosystem.