Data from Statistics Estonia show the consumer basket was 3.9% higher in price in January than a year earlier. The price level was 1.5% higher than in January than in December 2024. Yearly inflation was restrained by the rise in VAT last January dropping out of the calculation of inflation, but a new factor that was added was the fee for registering cars. This had an impact on the consumer price index of 0.8 percentage point in January. The second part of the car tax, which is the annual car tax payment, is not reflected in the consumer price index.

The remainder of the inflation in January came mainly from a lot of food products rising in price as the large-scale price discounts of December came to an end. Prices of alcohol and tobacco products were pushed up further by rises in excise. Food prices started to rise last year, as the prices of commodities on global markets increased. That increase in global markets has stopped in recent months, but the earlier price rises have not yet passed through in full.

Inflation was held back in January only by energy prices, which were down 4.7% over the year. Cold weather last January meant that the market price of electricity was high, but the weather this year has been warmer, and so energy was 12.5% cheaper than it was a year earlier. Prices for natural gas and motor fuels rose over the year though. The weakness of the exchange rate for the euro may cause energy prices to rise in future.
The Eesti Pank forecast expects that consumer price inflation will be 4.3% this year.

Hanna Jürgenson
Communications Specialist
Eesti Pank
Tel: 5692 0930
Press enquiries: [email protected]