Growth in the average wage was shown by data from Statistics Estonia to have accelerated in the first quarter to 6.2%, from 4.5% in the final quarter of last year. Months with outlying figures played a large part in the acceleration, as the figure for the fourth quarter of last year was brought down by the growth in wages being only 1.5% in December, while the figure for the first quarter of this year was boosted by the growth in January of 6.6%. These growth figures were a consequence of changes to the income tax system in 2025 and 2026 that encouraged employers to shift the timing of when wages were paid.

If the outlying figures are left out, the rate of growth in wages slowed from 6.3% in October and November to 5.3% in February and March. This change was increased because the rise in the minimum wage in 2026 was postponed until April, which slowed the rise in lower wages. Another effect of the rise in the minimum wage being postponed was that wage growth was weaker in sectors that have a lower average wage such as accommodation and catering, administration and support activities, and other service activities. Wage growth in the second quarter will be higher than in February and March as the minimum wage will be 6.8% higher and the minimum hourly wage in healthcare will be 5% higher. Given the capacity for growth in the Estonian economy and the expected rate of inflation, the growth in the average wage will remain below but close to 5% in the longer term.

Survey data from Statistics Estonia show the unemployment rate rose in the first quarter to 7.1% from 6.4% in the previous quarter. The increase was largely caused by seasonal factors, as unemployment is usually higher at the start of the year. Data from Töötukassa show though that registered unemployment has been falling for more than two years, and the number of vacancies started to rise last year as well. This means that things are looking up for jobseekers, as although the competition for available jobs remains tight, it is starting to lessen.

Additional information:
Hanna Jürgenson
Communications officer
Eesti Pank
Tel 5692 0930
Press enquiries: [email protected]