The global economy has cooled after its rapid improvement in the first half of the year. Involuntary savings and state aid packages have allowed consumption to grow, while the success of vaccination, mainly in the richest countries, has allowed the tight coronavirus restrictions to be eased. As demand has increased, so international trade has revived, though further growth in it is increasingly limited by supply and logistics problems and the availability of raw materials. This is one reason why the global aggregate index of economic activity has weakened in early autumn in both the industrial and service sectors. The mismatch between demand and supply and higher prices for raw materials have caused inflation to rise, and looking forwards, prices appear set to rise faster than usual.
