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financial stability

Financial Stability Review 2022/2

Falling demand, high inflation and rising costs for servicing loans pose a threat to the ability of companies and households to repay their loans. Economic activity has declined in the second half of this year in Estonia and in Estonia’s main trading partners. High inflation is reducing purchasing power and the capacity to service loans. Central banks have started raising monetary policy interest rates sharply to combat inflation, and the impact also increases the cost of servicing loans. The September forecast from Eesti Pank expects the economy to shrink this year by around 0.5%, and to grow next year by 1%. Geopolitical instability means, however, that there is more uncertainty than usual about the near-term future. Improved corporate profitability in 2021 and the financial buffers built up in recent years allow the hope that short-term problems with loan repayments will be coped with. The ability of households to repay their loans depends largely on whether unemployment starts to rise. The Eesti Pank September forecast expects that demand for labour and employment will both start to decline in the second half of this year, but unemployment will only rise a little. The forecast is that overdue loans will only increase a small amount next year, from 0.2% of the loan portfolio of the banks in September 2022 to 1%.

Failid

  • PDF failitüüpi kujutav ikoonFinancial Stability Review 2022/2
  • PDF failitüüpi kujutav ikoonFalling demand, high inflation and rising interest rates pose a threat to the solvency of companies and households
  • PDF failitüüpi kujutav ikoonFast growth in credit could lead to larger loan losses in the future
  • PDF failitüüpi kujutav ikoonTensions in the money and capital markets are affecting the funding of the banks
  • PDF failitüüpi kujutav ikoonAppendix 1. Assessing the transition risks in the banking sector
  • PDF failitüüpi kujutav ikoonAppendix 2. The effect of the pension reform on pension funds
Publikatsiooni Financial Stability Review 2022/2 kaanepilt

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