RESEARCH SEMINAR. The impact of the countercyclical capital buffer on corporate loans: the German experience

Seminars

26

märts2026

15:00 - 16:00

Senior economist from the Finnish central bank Eeva Kerola and senior adviser to the International Monetary Fund Anni Norring present their research on the effect of the countercyclical capital buffer on firm loans in Germany at an Eesti Pank research seminar at 15.00. The seminar will be in English.

You can participate in the seminar on Microsoft Teams:
Eesti Panga teadusseminar
Koosoleku ID: 387 566 657 603 72
Pääsukood: iC7xC2XQ

Effect of the countercyclical capital buffer on firm loans - Evidence from Germany

This paper examines how tightening the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) in Germany affects bank lending to firms, using highly granular loan‑level data from the European Central Bank. Exploiting the 2022 German CCyB increase and employing a difference‑in‑differences identification strategy with Austria as the control group, the authors show that German banks reduce corporate lending volumes and raise lending rates – changes that materialize immediately after the policy announcement, well before implementation. Crucially, the tightening disproportionately affects small and medium‑sized enterprises (SMEs), which face both reduced credit supply and higher borrowing costs, while bigger firms remain largely unaffected. The results highlight the importance of announcement effects in macroprudential policy and point to significant distributional consequences across firm sizes.