Foreign demand improved at the start of 2025, and trade revived with it. Growth in goods exports had already started to recover last year, and it exceeded expectations at the start of this year. It should be noted though that the reference figures from last year were at a very low level. Data from the balance of payments show the turnover of exports of goods and services increased by 10% in the first quarter, while the turnover of imports increased by 11%. The expectations of companies for further recovery in exports were pessimistic despite the growth, which reflects the uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs.

Exports of goods grew in most groups of goods and most destination countries in the first quarter. Demand improved at the start of the year in the euro area and beyond it. Growth in exports was particularly strong towards the Netherlands, the USA, Poland and Lithuania among Estonia's largest trading partners. At the end of last year it was mainly countries outside the euro area that drove the growth in exports, but at the start of this year exports to Finland and Germany also improved. Exports to Sweden continue to struggle. The groups of goods that made the biggest contribution to the growth were mineral products, machinery and equipment, metal and metal products, and processed food products.

Purchases of services from Estonia by trading partners have been stable, but have varied across sectors. The turnover of exports of services grew moderately by 5% in the first quarter. Growth was strongest at 11% in the export turnover of telecommunications and computer services, followed by faster growth than previously of 10% in exports of travel services. Travel services saw the largest increase in private travel. The turnover of exports of business services increased by 4%. The turnover of exports of transport services fell, mainly because of the decline in road transport, which has been particularly sensitive to the volatility in the markets and the general uncertainty in the economy.
The overall recovery in the economy increased the need to import goods. The turnover of goods imports was up by 11% in the first quarter, and imports of services were also 11% more than a year previously. The biggest drivers of the increase were imports of machinery and equipment, electronic goods, and mineral fuels. A large part of the growth in imports of goods came from one-off imports connected to national defence.

The current account was in deficit by 228 million euros in the first quarter of 2025, which was 2.4% of GDP. The current account continued to receive support from the surplus on the services account, though this was smaller than before.
Although the turnover of exports of goods increased and there were signs of improvement at the start of the year, the forward-looking estimates of companies remain pessimistic. The uncertainty around trade tariffs is clearly also affecting companies, and so their estimates for export orders have not particularly improved.

See also the statistical release on the balance of payments and the international investment position for the first quarter of 2025.

Additional information:
Hanna Jürgenson
Communications Specialist
Eesti Pank
Tel: 5692 0930
Press enquiries: [email protected]